Maryland Dems soiling themselves with prospect of Ehrlich Running

In a nice moment of synergy, Center Maryland's centrist facade meets scare(d) tactics with this morning's advice that Bob Ehrlich should wait to run for Governor until 2014.

I'm not going to bother quoting the article, but I think the message is pretty clear: DEMOCRATS ARE TERRIFIED O'MALLEY IS GOING TO LOSE.

They may want to grab some clean underwear, too.....

Meaningless Numbers

The left has decided to examine Governor Ehrlich's chances of unseating Martin O'Malley next year, and Adam Pagnucco decided to start his analysis with the most meaningless statistic in all of politics: voter registration data.

Overall, the Democrats have an absolute majority (at 56.9%) and outnumber Republicans by better than two-to-one. But the total numbers mask the geographic domination of the Democrats and the regional isolation of the GOP.

The Democrats have more than 50% of registered voters in eight jurisdictions: Baltimore City and Baltimore, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Montgomery, Prince George’s and Somerset Counties. Those jurisdictions account for 60% of the state’s registered voters. The Republicans have more than 50% of registered voters in two jurisdictions: Carroll and Garrett Counties, which account for just 4% of the state’s registered voters.

Let’s lower the threshold to 40%. The Democrats have more than 40% of registered voters in 18 jurisdictions (all except Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, Queen Anne’s and Washington Counties) that account for 88% of the state’s registered voters. The Republicans have more than 40% of registered voters in eight jurisdictions: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, Harford, Queen Anne’s, Talbot and Washington Counties, which account for just 17% of the state’s registered voters.

All of which, statistically speaking, was incredibly similar to the numbers that then-Congressman Ehrlich faced in 2002 when he defeated Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

Pagnucco goes on to continue with his analysis:

Registration does not always determine voting behavior. Maryland is a state in which Democrats can and do vote for Republicans, the most successful of whom has unquestionably been Bob Ehrlich. But all of the above means that the Democrats have a far broader reach across the state than does the GOP. Western Maryland is the only region in which the Democrats struggle to compete. The Republicans are non-competitive in three of the state’s four biggest jurisdictions (Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties) and lag Democrats in Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, fast-growing Charles County and even some parts of the Eastern Shore. All of this is a hurdle that any statewide GOP candidate would have to overcome.

Which of course, is also completely meaningless. When you look at voting results, and not voting registration, you see a picture that is, statistically speaking, more of a level playing field for Republicans running in Maryland; particularly a more-moderate, high-name ID Republican such as Bob Ehrlich. And, of course you need to look no further than the aforementioned Anne Arundel County to notice that a Democratic-majority county has elected this decade a Republican County Executive, Clerk of the Court, Register of Wills, two Circuit Court Judges who ousted Democratic appointees, three Judges of the Orphans Court, four of seven County Council Members, a majority of the Delegates, half of the State Senators, and gave two solid majorities to Bob Ehrlich and George W. Bush, and even one to John McCain.

What does this all mean? It means that voter registration numbers as a means of determining voter performance are completely useless......which was something Pagnucco could have learned had he read my analysis from six months ago, the last time he tried this argument.

If Democrats are hanging their hat on voter registration numbers to bail them out next year, Bob Ehrlich and the Republican Party may be in better shape that even we think...

Lines in the Sand

My RedMaryland colleague Michael Swartz has done some excellent analysis about the likely prospects of Congressional and Legislative reapportionment here in Maryland following the 2010 election. And some of it is not pretty. Based on some of the potential redistricting plans Michael found floated by "silver spring" on the Swing State Project website, we could be in for a huge problem here in Maryland.

Take a look at this Congressional District map:What do the inner DC suburbs have to do with Carroll County? What does Gibson Island have in common with District Heights? Nothing, but that's one of the many permutations that Democrats could concoct after the next year's census.

The legislative plans? Potentially worse:
Heavily gerrymandered districts designed to do Mike Miller's goal of "burying Republicans for forty years?" You betcha.

Anybody who has been around Maryland politics during this decade knows what can happy when it comes to the reapportionment process. And that is what makes the 2010 Gubernatorial election so vitally important to the state of Maryland. In Maryland the process is, more or less, completely controlled by the Governor. Once the Governor introduces his plan to the General Assembly, the General Assembly has forty-five days to pass their own redistricting plan or else the one that is proposed by the Governor is put into place. Of course, the likelihood of a majority of the General Assembly agreeing to the creation of district lines, particularly those for their own seats, when members of the Assembly are bound to find themselves in an uncomfortable position is relatively unlikely. So the likelihood of the plan proposed by whomever is Governor is 2011 being adopted is a relative certainty.

Now, rewind back to 2002 and the legislative and congressional plans introduced by Parris Glendening. The plans were introduced by the Governor and became law 45 days after their proposal due to the inability of the General Assembly to adopt its own plan. Glendening's plans presented us with laughably gerrymandered districts; you can see his Congressional Districting plan, which remains in effect today. However, his legislative districting plan was so onerous and ridiculous that it clearly did not meet the Constitutional requirements for legislative districting; some districts were not geographically congruous and many districts were clearly desgined to screw Glendening's political opponents. For example, six precincts from Baltimore County were mysteriously redistricted to District 31, across the Patapsco River in Anne Arundel County. I'm sure it was just a coincidence that State Senator Norm Stone lived in one of those six precincts. Because of such shenanigans, Glendening's plan was tossed out of court and replaced with today's court-imposed plan in late June 2002.

Now this brings us back to the importance of the 2010 Gubernatorial Election. The Governor has the power to create these legislative district lines. Which means the voters of Maryland have an opportunity, moreso than in most elections, to have major longstanding change on the makeup of the Maryland General Assembly. And there are two distinctive scenarios.

Scenario one sees Martin O'Malley reelected. And can you imagine the districts that this petulant Governor would come up with? Given O'Malley's ability to hold grudges and inability to lead, no legislator who has ever crossed O'Malley would be safe. Anne Arundel County, for example, would likely be shredded to pieces, with shared districts across county lines to force a Republican leaning county into districts with more sympathetically Democratic areas in Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Howard, and Prince George's County. An O'Malley redistricting plan would strike a chilling blow against competitive government and the marketplace of ideas in Maryland.

Scenario two sees the election of a Republican governor next year. And it would be a tremendous opportunity for Maryland's middle and working class families to see positive change in Maryland. We would have the opportunity to see redistricting done in a manner that is more fair, more equitable, and more in line with the ideological leanings of Maryland voters. Furthermore, we may finally see redistricting done in the most fair manner of all, with the introduction of single member districts for the election of all 141 members of the House of Delegates. Not only would this see the elimination of the constitutionally questionable one, two, or three member districts depending on your location and subdistricting, but would also allow for a greater diversity of members being elected to the General Assembly. Not only would single member districts allow for a more ideologically-balanced House of Delegates, it would also create more majority-minority districts that would allow for a more accurate minority representation in Annapolis. All in all, legislative districts drawn by a Republican governor will be more fair and more accurately representative of Maryland's economic, ideologically, and cultural diversity than anything that will be drawn by a Maryland Democrat.

These districts are not just lines in the sand; they are the basic building blocks for the elected legislators who make decisions in Annapolis. We must seriously consider the consequences of redistricting as it relates to the 2010 election, and we must make sure that the voters understand what is at stake as we get closer to next November...

Whoops

This is just one of those moments where you just have to sit back and shake your head:

A state constitutional requirement that a gubernatorial candidate must be a registered voter in Maryland for five years could prevent Charles County Republican Central Committee Chairman Charles J. Lollar from seeking the state's highest office.....

....If Lollar opts to run for governor, he will have to prove his eligibility.

A candidate for governor or lieutenant governor "must have attained the age of thirty years, and must have been a resident and registered voter of the State for five years next immediately preceding his election," according to Article II, Section 5 of the Maryland Constitution.

OK, that's bad enough. But the story amazingly gets worse:

Lollar moved to Maryland from suburban Atlanta in October 2005 and submitted his voter registration application with his vehicle registration application shortly thereafter, he said.

However, a copy of his voter registration card on file at the Charles County Board of Elections obtained by the Maryland Independent shows he signed and dated his application on June 6, 2006. He maintained that the application was submitted right after he moved, but was not processed until the following June for unknown reasons.

It's almost like Republicans in our state are trying to find new and creative ways to embarrass themselves and the party these days....

Hopefully, Lollar will throw his hat into the Congressional race and not risk further dragging this story out for an even longer period of time. But I'm pretty curious to know why Lollar says he is going to be found eligible when the form he signed and dated appears to say otherwise.

The Governor needs to pay attention

How come it only ever seems like Governor O'Malley and his administration are surprised at the need for fiscal restraint, most recently shown through the announcement of an impending $700 million in cuts for the current fiscal year that would be coming down the pike?

How many times over the course of this economic downturn have Republicans, economists, and yes Maryland's conservative blogosphere, warned of the impending economic calamity from the imposition of O'Malleynomics here in Maryland? How many times did people note the folly of increasing discretionary spending during a budgetary deficit? How many times were Annapolis Democrats warned that drastic and immoral tax hikes during a recession would lead to a reduction in tax revenues (something that we have already seen this year)? How many times have people noted that the time Keynesian economics has passed, and its continued implementation would provide disastrous consequences to our state and its taxpayers?

Instead, Governor O'Malley insisted on continuing to raise taxes and to increase social spending in order to keep the coalition of interest groups that elected him in line. It's sad, it's objectionable, and it shows O'Malley's commitment to putting special interests ahead of the interests of Maryland's working and middle class families. Now, it looks like the Governor is actaully going to have to make cuts, which is a good thing except for one small fact.

O'Malley declined to detail specific cuts that he's considering but indicated it would be "impossible" to fully preserve budgeted spending for education, health and public safety because those areas comprise such a large part of the budget.

Two of those three are a severe problem, as two of the state's constitutional duties are to provide funding for public safety and for education. So instead of cutting spending or retreating on his silly list of 15 goals, he is going to really put the screws to the people and cut where it really hurts, presumably in a ruse designed to create popular support for a tax increase or to blame Bob Ehrlich for these cuts. Either way, O'Malley is (as usual) putting the political calculus ahead of the bottom line for Maryland's families.

I think the people are really starting to see through this charade. It is long past time that we return competent leadership to Annapolis. And Governor O'Malley is neither competent or a leader...

Not All Numbers Mean Something

Adam Pagnucco has spent this week trying to bury the State Republican Party due to changes in the voter registration numbers. The basic premise is that because the total number of registered Democrats in Maryland is increasing at a faster rate than the number of registered Republicans that the Republican Party is doomed.

However, the total number of registered party members in the state or in any particularly jurisdiction is relatively meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

Take a look, for example, at my home district of District 31. In that district, there are 1.6 Democratic registrants for every Republican registrant. Election results speak to any an entirely different set of circumstances. Last year, John McCain and Andy Harris both carried 58% of the vote in this district during the Presidential Election. And in 2006:

• Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele both won about 60% of the vote in the District.
• AG Candidate Scott Rolle and Comptroller Candidate Anne McCarthy both carried 31.
  
• Bryan Simonaire became the first Republican State Senator in the District;
• Don Dwyer, Nic Kipke, and Steve Schuh were elected as Delegates; the first GOP sweep of Distirct 31
• County Councilman Ron Dillon was re-elected without Democratic Opposition.
  

The point of this exercise is to prove that while voter registration numbers are a cute way to try and say a party is or is not dying, they are in no way the be all and end all of the situation. Maryland has had an overwhelming majority of voters registered as Democrats for a long time in a number of districts. But that has not stopped a lot of those districts from elecitng Republicans to serve in the General Assembly, and it hasn't stopped these voters from supporting Republican candidates over Democrats at the statewide level. You talk to a lot of these voters in districts like the 31st, and you find out that these voters are always voting Republican, they just choose not to change their registration for whatever reason.

Bottom line: a lot of these Democrats that Pagnucco likes to use to prove that the Republican Party is dead are actually supporting Republican candidates. With the continued incompetence of Governor O'Malley and Democratic Leadership, I have a feeling that the number of D's voting R is going to increase substantially in 2010....

Now it gets Interesting

For a long time I was discussing the likelihood that Comptroller Peter Franchot would challenge Governor O'Malley in next year's Democratic primary. Well, it looks like the Governor is going to get a challenge.....not from the left, but from the right according to the Sun:

George W. Owings III, a former Democratic delegate and party leader from Calvert County, is “actively considering a challenge” to Gov. Martin O’Malley in next year’s election, the former majority leader told The Baltimore Sun.

The 64-year-old Vietnam war hero from Dunkirk, who served on Republican Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.’s cabinet, said he was “45 to 60 days” away from deciding whether to challenge O’Malley in the 2010 Democratic primary. He acknowledged that the odds of anyone unseating the incumbent governor “are very long.”.....

....After serving in the House of Delegates from 1988 to 2004, Owings was Ehrlich’s secretary of the Maryland Department of Veterans Affairs. A conservative Democrat, Owings said he believes the state party has “strayed from its working class roots” under O’Malley’s leadership.

The former mortgage banker said he began mulling a challenge after the governor pushed unpopular tax hikes through the General Assembly in 2007 in order to confront the massive structural budget deficit he inherited.

“I see a lot of good, solid working-class Democrats with serious concerns about the direction we are taking,” Owings said. He said he has “the mechanics in place” for an organized campaign, including “some guarantees of operating money” from a “loosely knit financing committee.”

This is the best piece of news that opponents of Governor O'Malley could possibly hear. A bruising Democratic primary means there is a pretty good chance that O'Malley will need to waste financial and political capital running against a fellow Democrat, while the Republican candidate will be able to criss-cross the state introducing themselves to voters and stay above the fray......assuming we united behind one candidate (which is an altogether separate problem with all of the competing interests amount the Bob Ehrlich, Charles Lollar, and Mike Pappas camps).

And Owings isn't the only one contemplating a challenge. Former Prince George's County Executive Wayne Curry may jump into the fray too. Even usually reliable Democratic quote machine Matthew Crenson even concedes the following to the Sun:

“Even if they’re not true, the fact that there are so many rumors suggests that O’Malley is perceived as vulnerable,” Crenson said.

This is a good sign, but let's not bet the ranch that this is the be all and end all of the 2010 Election, either. Sure, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend may have been morally wounded when she gave up 20-percent of the priamry vote to grocery store clerk Raymond Fustero in 2002, but remember that incumbent Governor Parris Glendening bowled right through then Harford County Executive Eileen Rehrmann and former Redskin Ray Schoenke in the primary in his 1998 re-election campaign.

This is a positive development that O'Malley is drawing potential primary challengers, but there is a lot of work for Republicans to do over the next 18 months for us to be able to draw any benefit from it...

WaPo sees the future

If you read the Washington Post this morning, you'd have thought that the 2010 Gubernatorial Election is over and that we lost:

Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley began last year at the nadir of his popularity, having just raised taxes. At year's end, he was weighing deep budget cuts likely to strain relations with key constituencies.

But along the way, O'Malley managed to rack up several political victories, in Maryland and beyond its borders, that appear to strengthen his hand heading into a widely expected reelection bid next year.

By substantial margins, Maryland voters approved two ballot measures in November backed by the governor, one legalizing five slot machine gambling sites and the other authorizing early voting in the next election. Voters' rejection of slots would have been a significant setback for O'Malley (D), and early voting should disproportionately help Democrats in a state where they enjoy a 2-to-1 advantage in party registration.

Both ballot measures were opposed by former governor and current radio host Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R), whose boosters would like to see a 2010 rematch with O'Malley.

The story also goes on to (rightly) note that O'Malley was bolstered by Frank Kratovil's election in the First District, something that also was bound to hurt Governor Ehrlich due to his ill-conceived strong embrace of Andy Harris.

Be that as it may, I think that it's hard to say that all of these things point to Martin O'Malley winning or losing in 2010:

• The slot machine question had little to do with the battle between O'Malley and Ehrlich. Yes, both men had their opinions and were in respective corners for the battle, bat it was hardy a matter of Democrats vs Republicans when you considered Peter Franchot's role in the anti-slots campaign, as well as the fierce opposition to slots by a number of liberal legislators and far left interest groups. Using the Post's logic, the defeat of slots could just as much be a repudiation of the far left as it is a leg up for O'Malley.
• Continuing with the similar theme, the overwhelming passage of Question 2 hardly counts for anything. There was very little, if any, organized campaigning for or against early voting, and quite frankly I think there wasn't much oxygen left for the issue to breath once you got passed slots and the Presidential election.
  
• With Kratovil, it's hard to say that his election will have any impact whatsoever on O'Malley. I think I have detailed my thoughts about the abominable campaign Harris ran enough, but when you consider this perfect storm, how does any of this help O'Malley in 2010?:
• A young Democratic Candidate who was easily packaged as a moderate; and
  
• Wayne Gilchrest's defeat in the Republican Primary; by
• The worst possible Republican candidate (Western Shore, very unlikeable) who ran a historically bad campaign; with
• Higher African-American turnout on the lower shore due to Obama.
  

At the same time, we still have an economy that is in free fall, partially due to the national recession and partially due to O'Malley's reckless and irresponsible spending and tax increases. And O'Malley and Company are still going to have to deal with that starting next week, and they are either going to wind up angering their rabid base through cutting spending, or angering everybody else in the state with even more tax hikes.

O'Malley had a reasonably successful 2008 at the Ballot Box, but projecting his victory in 2010 would be like predicting Maryland winning the ACC title in 2009 due to their Humanitarian Bowl win; completely meaningless and based on false premises.

I still think O'Malley is in trouble for re-election, whether or not he is primaried by Peter Franchot...